時論廣場》蔡總統520前後待辦的清單（方恩格）

蔡英文總統即將迎來卸任的日子，希望蔡英文和賴清德都能有足夠的智慧來確保交接順利，而不受他們或他們派系之間任何緊張局勢的影響。(資料照片)

蔡英文總統即將迎來卸任的日子。不幸的是，有關403花蓮大地震的事件將會在她最後幾周的任期內佔據公共政策討論的版面。因此，比起一般總統的正常卸任情況，她更可能會在做出某些決定時備受限制。在她任期僅剩的日子裡，以下是應該出現在蔡總統「待辦」清單上的一些事項。

第一，特赦：中華民國憲法第四十條「總統依法行使大赦，特赦，減刑及復權之權。」在民主社會中，即將卸任的總統通常會行使這一權力以特赦對應人士。例如，前美國總統川普在其任期的最後幾天裡特赦了許多人，包括他那些因罪行而被判有罪的朋友。

而是否要特赦曾因犯罪入獄的前總統陳水扁，將會是蔡總統最難以決定的問題。考慮到陳水扁罪行的嚴重性，特赦他將是一個可怕的錯誤選擇。對民進黨支持者來說，特赦陳水扁無疑會是一個很了不起的政績。但無論如何，由於先前陳水扁在打破所謂「保外就醫」期間的限制時，法務部和矯正署都沒有采取任何強制執行的手段，所以這件事早就已經成爲一個笑話了。因此，對陳水扁的特赦將只是用來確認他當初並未被執行的條件已不復存在。

第二，給親蔡人士工作：臺灣擁有大量的國營事業、民營之國營事業，以及政府掌握的智庫。在許多民主國家裡，即將卸任的總統會提供那些值得的支持者在這些組織中工作的機會來獎勵他們。在過去的八年裡，民進黨已經巧妙地提供具有「正確」政治關係的人們這樣的機會。蔡總統會在5月20日之前試圖實施最後一輪這種類型的任命嗎？畢竟，由於即將上任的總統賴清德也是民進黨的一員，因此若是他在任內反對或是取消提供這些工作機會給黨內「內部人士」會顯得有點奇怪。

第三，頒獎：總統有權對有勳勞於國家或社會的人士，包括公民和外國人，頒發國家獎項。事實上，蔡總統已經授予許多外國人中華民國的各種勳章，例如授予美國前國務卿麥克·龐培歐特種大綬景星勳章。有鑑於許多外賓即將前來臺灣參加賴清德的就職典禮，這會是蔡總統向臺灣的「外國朋友們」頒發這些獎項的絕佳機會。

第四，卸任演說：蔡總統應該要向臺灣民衆和國際社會發表卸任演說嗎？在民主國家中，這也是即將卸任的國家元首常做的事情。此類演說內容可以涉及她在國內外政策方面的重大成就，包括她在應對潛在的中國軍事衝突時，爲臺灣所做的努力。有人可能認爲，在403花蓮大地震後不久進行這樣的演說稍嫌不妥。然而，蔡總統可能會好好利用這個機會來細屬她的政績。

第五，對賴總統的建議：在美國，即將卸任的總統會在白宮橢圓辦公室的桌子上留下一封信給即將上任的總統。蔡總統和賴副總統在過去四年裡都有定期互動，所以也許蔡英文總統不太必要再特別給賴清德一封信。但無論是何種形式，蔡總統都應該毫不猶豫地向賴總統提供「最後」的忠告。

至於蔡總統卸任後的計劃，以下幾件事情也應該是她「待辦」清單上的優先考慮事項。儘管蔡總統值得踏上一段脫離公衆視野的長假，但政治人物有時就是會忍不住想要參與一點公共政策的討論，像是前總統陳水扁和馬英九就是兩個在任期結束後仍試圖保持與公共政策之間聯繫的例子。蔡總統卸任後的「待辦事項」清單可能會包括：

第一，海外訪問：世界各地會有許多議員和智庫等待蔡英文的訪問、演講和接受獎項。蔡英文無疑可以作爲臺灣的無任所大使。儘管公衆通常不瞭解無任期大使的工作內容，而且他們的成就也相對有限，但臺灣已經有過先例，筆者預計賴政府將根據《國家機密保護法》批准蔡總統的海外訪問申請；因爲即使在沒有其他原因的影響下，這樣做也可以藉由讓蔡英文離開臺灣，而使賴清德可以不用一直待在蔡英文的影子下運作。

第二，黨內事務 /「英系」：蔡英文是否打算在民進黨中保留一個「英系」？她是否想成爲幕後的「造王者」並在黨內政治中發揮影響力？看在賴清德的份上，希望蔡英文並沒有這樣的計劃，就如同前兩任總統陳水扁和馬英九一樣，他們都並未在兩屆任期結束後，於其屬政黨中擔任類似角色。但如果她日後真的在民進黨內運作一個「英系」，我們也不應該感到太意外。

第三，智庫：蔡英文是否會重振她的智庫「小英教育基金會」？重新啓動一個智庫的原因之一是，它爲蔡英文提供了一個平臺，使她得以繼續分享她對公共政策議題的看法，無論是國內政策、外交政策，或是兩岸政策。如果她打算要讓她的智庫再度活躍起來，那麼它可能會支持賴政府的政策，但也不排除有時會批評政策的可能性。

第四，出書：無論是在臺灣還是其他國家，前任國家領導者寫一本關於他們在任期間經歷的書是很常見的現象。蔡英文總統會寫一本這種書嗎？如果會的話，臺灣的讀者會想要買來看嗎？她會在書裡分享在任期內公衆還不知道的細節嗎？又或是，她會寫她與副總統賴清德之間的關係嗎？

第五，接見來訪的外國政要：來訪臺灣的外國政要，如議員和智庫學者，都會希望與前總統蔡英文會面。一般而言，他們的行程安排會交由外交部負責。可以理解的是，賴政府可能不會希望蔡英文與來訪的外國政要會面，因爲她有可能對訪客們說出一些與賴政府政策不一致的事。話雖如此，若是不讓來訪的外國政要與蔡英文會面，對訪客來說可能會有些失禮；尤其是當這些人是在她八年任期內經悱見面的政要時。因此，這對賴政府來說會是一個很艱難的決定。

總而言之，這是民進黨首次由一位連任兩屆的總統將權力移交給同樣來自民進黨的繼任者。讓我們一起希望蔡英文和賴清德都能有足夠的智慧來確保交接順利，而不受他們或他們派系之間任何緊張局勢的影響。

（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席，許淳恩翻譯）

Tsai Ing-wen's Final Month and Post Presidency

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

@RossFeingold

President Tsai Ing-wen has reached the final weeks of her presidency. Unfortunately for President Tsai, the earthquake off of Hualien on April 3 will dominate public policy discussions in these final weeks, and might limit her ability to make certain decisions that one would normally expect an outgoing president to make. In the remaining days of her presidency, these are some of the things that should be on President Tsai's "to do" list.

1. Pardons: Article 40 of the Republic of China Constitution grants the president the "power of granting amnesties, pardons, remission of sentences and restitution of civil rights". It is common in democratic societies for an outgoing president to exercise this power to deserving persons. President Donald Trump in his final days in office issued a large number of pardons, including to friends of his who had been convicted of crimes.

A pardon for convicted criminal and former President Chen Shui-bian would be the most difficult pardon for Tsai to decide. Given the severity of Chen's crimes, it would be a terrible mistake to pardon him. A pardon for Chen would certainly strengthen Tsai's legacy with Democratic Progressive Party supporters. Regardless, Chen's so-called "medical parole" has long since become a joke, with neither the Ministry of Justice nor Agency of Corrections enforcing the conditions under which Chen was paroled from prison. Thus, a pardon for Chen would simply confirm that the unenforced conditions of Chen's release no longer exist.

2. Jobs for Supporters: Taiwan has a large number of state-owned companies, state controlled companies, and government controlled think tanks. In many democracies, an outgoing president will reward deserving supporters with jobs at such organizations. Over the past eight years, the Democratic Progressive Party has expertly given such opportunities to persons with the "right" political connections. Will Tsai try to implement a final round of such appointments before May 20? After all, incoming President Lai Ching-te is also from the Democratic Progressive Party, and it would be odd for him to object to, or cancel, giving such jobs to party "insiders".

3. Awards: The President has the authority to issue state awards to deserving persons, both citizens as well as foreigners. In fact, President Tsai has awarded many foreigners with the various orders of the Republic of China, such as awarding Mike Pompeo the Order of Brilliant Star with Special Grand Cordon. With foreign guests coming to Taiwan for Lai Ching-te's inauguration, it is a perfect opportunity for President Tsai to issue such awards to "foreign friends" of Taiwan.

4. Farewell Address: Should President Tsai deliver a farewell address to the people of Taiwan and the international community? This is also common in democracies for an outgoing head of state to do. The content of such address could include her notable domestic and foreign policy achievements, including what she did to prepare Taiwan for a potential military conflict with China. Some might consider such an address, shortly after the Hualien earthquake on April 3rd, to be inappropriate. But President Tsai might as well make use of this opportunity to begin to shape what her legacy will be.

5. Advice to President Lai: In the United States, there is a custom for the outgoing president to leave a letter in the Oval Office desk for the incoming president. President Tsai and Vice President Lai have interacted on a regular basis over the past four years, so perhaps it is unnecessary for President Tsai to leave a letter for Lai. Whatever format it takes, President Tsai should not be shy about providing "last minute" advice to Lai.

As for Tsai's post-presidency, several things should also be at the top of her "to do" list. Although Tsai deserves a long vacation from public life, politicians sometimes find it irresistible to try and stay relevant to public policy discussions, and former presidents Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou are two examples of former presidents did try to stay relevant after their terms concluded. Tsai's post-presidency "to do" list might include:

1. Overseas Travel: There will be high demand from parliamentarians and think tanks around the world for Tsai to visit, deliver speeches, and accept awards. Tsai can certainly function as an ambassador-at-large for Taiwan. Taiwan already has ambassadors-at-large, even though the public is generally unaware of what they do and their achievements are somewhat limited. This author expects the Lai Administration to approve Tsai's applications for overseas travel pursuant to its discretionary authority under the Classified National Security Information Protection Act, if for no other reason than it takes Tsai out of Taiwan so that Lai won't be operating in Tsai's shadow all the time.

2. Party Affairs / "Tsai Faction": Does Tsai plan to maintain a "Tsai Faction" in the Democratic Progressive Party? Does she want to be a behind the scenes "kingmaker" in party politics? For Lai's sake, one hopes that Tsai has no such plans, and her recent predecessors Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou, did not have such a role in their political parties after their two terms in office concluded. But we shouldn't be surprised if she does operate a "Tsai faction" within the Democratic Progressive Party.

3. Think Tank. Will Tsai re-invigorate her think tank "Thinking Taiwan"? One reason to re-start a think tank would be that it provides a platform for Tsai to continue to share her views on public policy issues, whether domestic policy, foreign policy, or China policy. If she does plan for her think tank to be active, it will probably support Lai Administration policies, but at times might also be a critic.

4. Write a Book: It is common in Taiwan (as well as other countries) for former leaders to write a book about their experiences in office. Will Tsai write such a book, and if so, will readers in Taiwan want to purchase it? Will she share any details about her presidency that the public doesn't already know? And what would she write about her relationship with her Vice President, William Lai?

5. Meet Visiting Foreign Dignitaries: Foreign dignitaries such as members of parliaments and think tank scholars who visit Taiwan will want to meet former President Tsai. Typically, their itinerary is arranged by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Understandably, the Lai Administration might not want Tsai to meet visiting foreign dignitaries because it has the risk that she tells the visitors things that are inconsistent with Lai Administration policy. Not letting visiting foreign dignitaries meet with Tsai might be rude to the visitors, especially if they frequently met with her during her eight years as president. This will be a tough decision for the Lai Administration.

In conclusion, this is the first time that a two term Democratic Progressive Party president hands off power to a successor who is also from the Democratic Progressive Party president. Let's hope that both Tsai and Lai have the wisdom to ensure this is a smooth process without any tensions between them or their factions.