時論廣場》以巴衝突爲臺灣提供寶貴教訓（方恩格）

儘管美國將繼續在中東發揮關鍵作用，中國同樣也會扮演日益重要的角色。（圖／路透）

有鑑於臺灣面臨中國大陸潛在侵入的威脅，以及臺灣軍隊最近缺乏實際作戰經驗，世界各地任何真槍實彈的戰爭都值得臺灣的軍事和民政領導層進行研究。以色列與哈瑪斯之間的戰爭當然也不例外。這場戰爭是如何開始，如何進行，以及如何結束都將爲臺灣提供寶貴的教訓。因此，國防部已經成立了一個專案小組來研究這場戰爭。

對烏克蘭戰爭的反應亦然，儘管在戰爭開始之前和不久之後，臺灣政府官員曾強調烏克蘭和臺灣因本質上不同而不適合做比較。在那個時候，世界各國普遍預期俄羅斯會輕易擊敗烏克蘭。但是當勇敢的烏克蘭人民成功證明他們有能力保家衛國時，人們又突然開始說「今日烏克蘭，明日臺灣」。

事實上，我們無法斷言臺灣會像烏克蘭和以色列各自面對俄羅斯和哈瑪斯恐怖分子的入侵一樣，以同樣的方式迴應中國大陸的入侵。然而，在現在哈瑪斯與以色列戰爭的早期階段，對臺灣來說已經有了一些寶貴的教訓。

首先，以色列動員其訓練有素的後備部隊，其速度之快值得臺灣學習。在動員宣佈的數小時內，以色列就有超過30萬名預備役軍人報到執行職務。臺灣是否能達到同樣效果呢？當被問及這個問題時，國防部長邱國正在中央社的報導中「未能給出直接回答，僅表示臺灣是一個小國，而其武裝部隊已經制定了動員計劃。」然而，由於臺灣尚未執行過如此大規模的演習，國防部無法確切得知在緊急情況下，有資格被召回的男性將會以多快的速度，或者會以多少比例的人數報到。

第二，是美國迅速向以色列運送武器的速度。在以色列遭遇襲擊並宣佈與哈瑪斯開戰的幾天內，美國就運送武器到了以色列。就如同烏克蘭一樣，以色列可能會迅速使用其存儲的武器和彈藥，並需要美國提供的補給。然而，這一情況發生在美國向臺灣交付武器的交貨出現延宕之際，而美國政府迄今爲止解決這些延遲的努力，又因烏克蘭和現在以色列的情況下而尚無成效。

第三，是以色列官員們的英語能力。無論是以色列總理班傑明·納坦雅胡還是以色列軍方的發言人，他們都能夠流利地說英語並且能夠自如地與國際媒體進行對話。同樣地，烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基也能夠以流利的英語對話，而許多烏克蘭政府官員和國會成員也是如此。比英語能力更重要的，是對全球經濟、政治和安全發展的充分了解。臺灣需要一位具備這些知識的總統，以及能夠自如地與外國政府和外國媒體進行對話的官員。坦白說，許多臺灣政府官員在英語技能以及對臺灣以外世界的認識上都還有很大的進步空間。

第四，世界關注的焦點並不會總是放在臺灣或印太地區。無論是在貿易還是安全方面上，美國都將繼續在中東發揮關鍵作用。國務卿布林肯上週對該地區的訪問即證實了這一點。與此同時，沙烏地阿拉伯提出與以色列建立外交關係條件之一是，美國必須提供核能技術和安全保證。儘管臺灣可能希望美國專注於印太地區，但美國將繼續投入大量的時間和資源在中東地區。

最後，儘管美國將繼續在中東發揮關鍵作用，中國同樣也會扮演日益重要的角色。不同以往，中國曾避免在中東政治裡發揮重要作用，而是僅限於擴大貿易關係；然而，今年早些時候，中國在伊朗和沙烏地阿拉伯和解過程中所扮演的「交易者」角色表明，中國認爲自己在該地區應該扮演更重要的角色。就像在911事件後美國和西歐尋求中國一同協助打擊恐怖主義時一樣，若是中東正在發生不穩定或戰爭，美國和西歐將繼續要求中國運用其影響力，與伊朗等國家合作，以防止更廣泛的戰爭。因此，中國派遣了其特使前往中東地區拜訪。

如果美國希望中國在中東地區提供協助，我們可以預期一件事，那就是美國將繼續告訴，或是公開表示，美國對臺灣的政策保持不變。儘管美國國會可能通過一項軍事援助法案，其中包括對烏克蘭和以色列的援助，臺灣當然也不例外；但我們還是希望，臺灣不會因爲全球對中東地區的關注以及美國和歐洲想與中國合作而在政治上受到挫敗。

（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席，翻譯：許淳恩）

原文：

Today Israel, Tomorrow Taiwan?

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

Twitter: @RossFeingold

Given the threat that Taiwan faces of a potential invasion by the Mainland, and, Taiwan’s military lack of recent actual combat experience, any shooting war around the world is worthy of study by Taiwan’s military and civilian leadership. The war between Israel and Hamas is no different. How the war began, how it is conducted, and how it ends will provide valuable lessons for Taiwan. The Ministry of National Defense has already established a working group to study the war.

The same with the war in in Ukraine, notwithstanding that prior to and shortly after the war began, Taiwan government officials discouraged comparisons between Ukraine and Taiwan. That was at a time when the world expected Russia to easily defeat Ukraine. When Ukraine’s brave people proved capable of defending their country, suddenly it was popular to compare Taiwan by saying “Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan”.

The truth is, it is impossible to say that Taiwan will respond to a Mainland invasion the same way Ukraine responded to Russia’s invasion, and it is impossible to say that Taiwan will respond to a Mainland invasion the same way Israel responded to the Hamas terrorists invasion.

However, at this early stage of the Hamas – Israel war, there are already several valuable lessons for Taiwan.

First, is the speed at which Israel mobilized its well trained reserve. Within hours of the mobilization announcement, over three hundred thousand members of Israel’s reserves reported for duty. Is this likely in Taiwan? When asked this, Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng, per a Central News Agency report, “did not give a direct answer, saying only that Taiwan is a small country, and its armed forces have mobilization plans in place.” The reality is, having not carried out such a large exercise, the Ministry of National Defense does not know how quickly, or what percentage of, men eligible for recall in an emergency will report for duty.

Second, is the speed at which the US dispatched weapons to Israel. Within days of the attack on Israel and Israel’s announcement that it is at war with Hamas, the United States shipped weapons to Israel. Just as in Ukraine, Israel is likely to rapidly use weapons and ammunition that it had in storage, and needs the replenishment that the United States provided. However, this comes at a time when weapons deliveries to Taiwan are delayed, and the efforts of the United States government to fix such delays have failed so far given the situation in Ukraine, and now, Israel.

Third, is the English language ability of Israeli officials. Whether it is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, or the spokespersons for Israel’s military, they are fluent in English and comfortable speaking to the international media. Similarly, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is comfortable speaking in English (notwithstanding that he speaks with an accent), as are many Ukraine government officials and members of Ukraine’s parliament. More important than English language ability is sufficient knowledge of global economic, political and security developments. Taiwan’s needs a president with sufficient knowledge of such things, and officials who are comfortable speaking to foreign governments and foreign media. To be frank, many Taiwan government officials (as well as candidates for president) have much room for improvement in English skills and knowledge of the world beyond Taiwan.

Fourth, the center of the world’s attention is not always going to be Taiwan or the Indo Pacific. The United States will continue to play a key role in the Middle East whether in trade or security. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to the region last week demonstrates this. So does Saudi Arabia’s request that in return for establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, the United States must provide nuclear power technology and a security guarantee. As much as we in Taiwan might want the US to focus on the Indo Pacific, the US will continue to devote much time and resources to the Middle East.

Finally, even though the United States will continue to play a key role in the Middle East, China will increasingly play a key role too. Unlike in the past when China avoided playing a key role in the politics of the Middle East and limited itself to expanding trade relations, the “dealmaker” role China played earlier this year in the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia demonstrated that China sees a more expanded role for itself in the region. Just like after 911 when the United States and western Europe sought China’s assistance in the War on Terror, if there is instability or war in the Middle East, the United States and western Europe will continue to ask China to use its influence with countries such as Iran to prevent a wider war. Thus, China dispatched its special envoy for the Middle East to visit the region.

If the United States expects China’s help in the Middle East, one can expect the United States to continue to tell China, or publicly say, that its policy towards Taiwan remains unchanged. Although the United States Congress might pass a military aid bill for Ukraine and Israel that also includes Taiwan, let’s hope Taiwan does not suffer political setbacks due to a global focus on events in the Middle East and a desire by the United States and Europe to cooperate with China.